Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 21, Jets 20 at MetLife Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 40.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Broncos' projected points come from. Expect Jets to find it hard going: Broncos' strong defense (7th) outranks Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 18 and Jets by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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