Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 21, Eagles 21 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 42.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colts puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (30th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 17 and Eagles by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Colts are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Colts schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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