Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 24, Saints 22 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Panthers win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 45.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) against Panthers' below-average defense (27th). Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Panthers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 15 and Panthers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Saints would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on CBS.
More: Saints schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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