Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 23, Buccaneers 17 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Ravens win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.8 points and 40.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 11 and Ravens by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 3.2. The game is on FOX.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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