Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 25, Titans 22 at Ford Field in Week 14. That is a lean: Lions win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 46.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense) meets Lions' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Titans puts up. Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 14 and Lions by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Lions by about 0.8. The game is on FOX.
More: Titans schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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