Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 23, Chargers 17 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 14. That is a lean: Raiders win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 39.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Expect Raiders to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 12 and Raiders by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Raiders by about 2.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Chargers schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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