Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 21, Chiefs 20 at Paycor Stadium in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 40.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Bengals' below-average defense (24th). Chiefs' strong defense (5th) should limit Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 16 and Bengals by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chiefs would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on FOX.
More: Chiefs schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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