Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bills 22, Packers 20 at Lambeau Field in Week 14. That is a genuine toss-up: Bills win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd). Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) meets Bills' below-average defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Packers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 19 and Packers by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bills are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
More: Bills schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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