Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 22, Bills 22 at Highmark Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 43.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Bills' below-average defense (20th). Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th); that mismatch is where most of Bills' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 17 and Bills by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Bills get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Bears schedule · Bills schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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