Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 21, Ravens 19 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 40.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th). Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 15 and Steelers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ravens would be favoured by 0.9. The game is on CBS.
More: Ravens schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.