Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 24, Bengals 22 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Panthers win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 46.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) against Bengals' below-average defense (24th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 15 and Panthers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bengals would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on FOX.
More: Bengals schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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