Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 23, Titans 23 at Nissan Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Colts win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) against Titans' below-average defense (26th). Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Titans puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 18 and Titans by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Colts are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Colts schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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