Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 21, Texans 19 at Reliant Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Jaguars win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 39.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jaguars puts up. Expect Texans to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (4th) outranks Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 18 and Texans by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Jaguars schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.