Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 22, Dolphins 18 at Lambeau Field in Week 15. That is a lean: Packers win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 40.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Packers' below-average defense (22nd) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Dolphins' below-average defense (25th); that mismatch is where most of Packers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 14 and Packers by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Packers by about 0.7. The game is on FOX.
More: Dolphins schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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