Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 21, Saints 21 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Buccaneers win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 41.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up. Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 16 and Buccaneers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Saints would be favoured by 2.1. The game is on FOX.
More: Saints schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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