Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 24, Jets 22 at State Farm Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Cardinals win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 45.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Cardinals' struggling defense (28th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Jets puts up. Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Cardinals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 14 and Cardinals by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Jets would be dead even. The game is on FOX.
More: Jets schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.