Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 26, Cowboys 21 at SoFi Stadium in Week 15. That is a lean: Rams win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 47.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rams' strong defense (9th); that mismatch is where most of Cowboys' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 12 and Rams by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 2.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Cowboys schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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