Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 21, Broncos 21 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 15. That is a genuine toss-up: Raiders win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 41.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up. Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 17 and Raiders by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Broncos would be favoured by 2.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Broncos schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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