Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 26, Lions 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 15. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.3 points and 42.1 combined points.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets Vikings' elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Lions puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 8 and Vikings by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 6.7. The game is on NBC.
More: Lions schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 15 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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