Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 26, Packers 16 at Soldier Field in Week 16. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.5 points and 42.2 combined points.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 7 and Bears by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 6.9. The game is on Netflix.
More: Packers schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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