NFL Week 16 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 16 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Patriots at Jets (0.1-point margin), the highest projected total is Bengals at Colts (47.4 points) and the lowest is Texans at Eagles (35.8). 4 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

Thu, Dec 24, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Texans18
Eagles18
We project Texans 18-18, a 0.3-point margin with 35.8 total points; Texans win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 35.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 35.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 51% · total 35.8Full preview →
Fri, Dec 25, 1:00 PM ESTNetflix
Packers16
Bears26
We project Bears 26-16, a 9.5-point margin with 42.2 total points; Bears win 77% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 9.5
Total 42.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 9.5 · Total 42.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 77% · total 42.2Full preview →
Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ESTNetflix
Bills19
Broncos22
We project Broncos 22-19, a 2.8-point margin with 41.3 total points; Broncos win 59% of the time.
Our number
DEN by 2.8
Total 41.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DEN by 2.8 · Total 41.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Broncos 59% · total 41.3Full preview →
Fri, Dec 25, 8:15 PM ESTFOX
Rams16
Seahawks23
We project Seahawks 23-16, a 7-point margin with 38.4 total points; Seahawks win 71% of the time.
Our number
SEA by 7
Total 38.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SEA by 7 · Total 38.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Seahawks 71% · total 38.4Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM EST
Buccaneers20
Falcons22
We project Falcons 22-20, a 2.5-point margin with 41.5 total points; Falcons win 58% of the time.
Our number
ATL by 2.5
Total 41.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — ATL by 2.5 · Total 41.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Falcons 58% · total 41.5Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM EST
Bengals22
Colts25
We project Colts 25-22, a 2.9-point margin with 47.4 total points; Colts win 59% of the time.
Our number
IND by 2.9
Total 47.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — IND by 2.9 · Total 47.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Colts 59% · total 47.4Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM EST
Commanders16
Vikings26
We project Vikings 26-16, a 9.4-point margin with 41.8 total points; Vikings win 77% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
MIN by 9.4
Total 41.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 9.4 · Total 41.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 77% · total 41.8Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 12:00 AM EST
Panthers21
Steelers23
We project Steelers 23-21, a 2.3-point margin with 43.7 total points; Steelers win 58% of the time.
Our number
PIT by 2.3
Total 43.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — PIT by 2.3 · Total 43.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Steelers 58% · total 43.7Full preview →

Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Chargers20
Dolphins17
We project Chargers 20-17, a 3-point margin with 37.4 total points; Chargers win 60% of the time.
Our number
LAC by 3
Total 37.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LAC by 3 · Total 37.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chargers 60% · total 37.4Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Cardinals22
Saints25
We project Saints 25-22, a 3.5-point margin with 46.9 total points; Saints win 61% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
NO by 3.5
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Our number — NO by 3.5 · Total 47 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saints 61% · total 46.9Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Patriots19
Jets19
We project Jets 19-19, a 0.1-point margin with 38.2 total points; Jets win 50% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 38.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 38.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jets 50% · total 38.2Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Browns18
Ravens22
We project Ravens 22-18, a 3.7-point margin with 39.3 total points; Ravens win 62% of the time.
Our number
BAL by 3.7
Total 39.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BAL by 3.7 · Total 39.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ravens 62% · total 39.3Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 4:05 PM ESTFOX
Titans20
Raiders24
We project Raiders 24-20, a 3.7-point margin with 43.6 total points; Raiders win 62% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LV by 3.7
Total 43.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LV by 3.7 · Total 43.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Raiders 62% · total 43.6Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ESTCBS
49ers20
Chiefs20
We project Chiefs 20-20, a 0.2-point margin with 39.2 total points; Chiefs win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 39.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 39.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 51% · total 39.2Full preview →
Sun, Dec 27, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Jaguars26
Cowboys20
We project Jaguars 26-20, a 5.7-point margin with 46 total points; Jaguars win 68% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 5.7
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 5.7 · Total 46 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 68% · total 46Full preview →
Mon, Dec 28, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Giants21
Lions24
We project Lions 24-21, a 3.2-point margin with 44.4 total points; Lions win 60% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
DET by 3.2
Total 44.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DET by 3.2 · Total 44.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Lions 60% · total 44.4Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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