Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 22, Bills 19 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 16. That is a lean: Broncos win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 41.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against Broncos' strong defense (7th). Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bills' below-average defense (20th); that mismatch is where most of Broncos' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 14 and Broncos by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 0.2. The game is on Netflix.
More: Bills schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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