Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 23, Rams 16 at Lumen Field in Week 16. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7 points and 38.4 combined points.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense). Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets Rams' strong defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 10 and Seahawks by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 4.4. The game is on FOX.
More: Rams schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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