Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 25, Bengals 22 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 16. That is a lean: Colts win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 47.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colts' struggling defense (30th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) against Bengals' below-average defense (24th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 14 and Colts by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 0.3.
More: Bengals schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.