Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 22, Buccaneers 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 16. That is a lean: Falcons win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 41.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buccaneers puts up. Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 14 and Falcons by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Buccaneers would be favoured by 0.1.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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