Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 25, Cardinals 22 at Caesars Superdome in Week 16. That is a lean: Saints win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 46.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense) meets Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cardinals puts up. Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Saints' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 13 and Saints by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 0.9. The game is on FOX.
More: Cardinals schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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