Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 22, Browns 18 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 16. That is a lean: Ravens win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 39.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 13 and Ravens by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 1.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Browns schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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