Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chargers 20, Dolphins 17 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 16. That is a lean: Chargers win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 37.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game).
Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Dolphins' below-average defense (25th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chargers puts up. Expect Dolphins to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) outranks Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 20 and Dolphins by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Chargers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Chargers schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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