Matchup analysis
Our model projects Raiders 24, Titans 20 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 16. That is a lean: Raiders win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 43.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Titans' below-average defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Raiders puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 13 and Raiders by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Raiders by about 1.1. The game is on FOX.
More: Titans schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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