Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 20, 49ers 20 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.2 points and 39.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Chiefs' strong defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up. Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chiefs puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between 49ers by 17 and Chiefs by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field 49ers would be favoured by 2.4. The game is on CBS.
More: 49ers schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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