Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 26, Cowboys 20 at AT&T Stadium in Week 16. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 46 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game).
Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from. Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Jaguars' strong defense (4th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cowboys puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 23 and Cowboys by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
More: Jaguars schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 16 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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