Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 22, Ravens 21 at Paycor Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 42.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game).
Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bengals' below-average defense (24th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 15 and Bengals by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ravens would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Ravens schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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