NFL Week 17 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 17 of the 2026 NFL season has 16 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Broncos at Patriots (0-point margin), the highest projected total is Giants at Cowboys (46 points) and the lowest is Broncos at Patriots (36.6). 9 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

Thu, Dec 31, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Ravens21
Bengals22
We project Bengals 22-21, a 2-point margin with 42.9 total points; Bengals win 56% of the time.
Our number
CIN by 2
Total 42.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CIN by 2 · Total 42.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bengals 56% · total 42.9Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM EST
Broncos18
Patriots18
We project Patriots 18-18, a 0-point margin with 36.6 total points; Patriots win 50% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 36.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 36.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Patriots 50% · total 36.6Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM EST
Chiefs19
Chargers19
We project Chiefs 19-19, a 0.7-point margin with 37.9 total points; Chiefs win 52% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
KC by 0.7
Total 37.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — KC by 0.7 · Total 37.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 52% · total 37.9Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM EST
Rams21
Buccaneers19
We project Rams 21-19, a 2.6-point margin with 40 total points; Rams win 58% of the time.
Our number
LA by 2.6
Total 39.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LA by 2.6 · Total 39.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rams 58% · total 40Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 12:00 AM EST
Commanders16
Jaguars26
We project Jaguars 26-16, a 9.7-point margin with 41.9 total points; Jaguars win 78% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 9.7
Total 41.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 9.7 · Total 41.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 78% · total 41.9Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Saints22
Falcons22
We project Falcons 22-22, a 0.7-point margin with 43.8 total points; Falcons win 52% of the time.
Our number
ATL by 0.7
Total 43.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — ATL by 0.7 · Total 43.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Falcons 52% · total 43.8Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Colts21
Browns22
We project Browns 22-21, a 1.1-point margin with 43.7 total points; Browns win 54% of the time.
Our number
CLE by 1.1
Total 43.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CLE by 1.1 · Total 43.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Browns 54% · total 43.7Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Giants22
Cowboys24
We project Cowboys 24-22, a 1.6-point margin with 46 total points; Cowboys win 55% of the time.
Our number
DAL by 1.6
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DAL by 1.6 · Total 46 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cowboys 55% · total 46Full preview →

Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Steelers21
Titans21
We project Steelers 21-21, a 0.1-point margin with 41.7 total points; Steelers win 50% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 41.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 41.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Steelers 50% · total 41.7Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Bills23
Dolphins19
We project Bills 23-19, a 4.3-point margin with 41.6 total points; Bills win 63% of the time.
Our number
BUF by 4.3
Total 41.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BUF by 4.3 · Total 41.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bills 63% · total 41.6Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Vikings21
Jets16
We project Vikings 21-16, a 5-point margin with 37.6 total points; Vikings win 66% of the time.
Our number
MIN by 5
Total 37.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 5 · Total 37.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 66% · total 37.6Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Seahawks24
Panthers18
We project Seahawks 24-18, a 5.7-point margin with 41.8 total points; Seahawks win 68% of the time.
Our number
SEA by 5.7
Total 41.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SEA by 5.7 · Total 41.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Seahawks 68% · total 41.8Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 4:05 PM ESTCBS
Raiders22
Cardinals23
We project Cardinals 23-22, a 1-point margin with 44.8 total points; Cardinals win 53% of the time.
Our number
ARI by 1
Total 44.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — ARI by 1 · Total 44.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cardinals 53% · total 44.8Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ESTFOX
Lions19
Bears26
We project Bears 26-19, a 7.6-point margin with 45 total points; Bears win 73% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 7.6
Total 45.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 7.6 · Total 45.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 73% · total 45Full preview →
Sun, Jan 3, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Eagles18
49ers21
We project 49ers 21-18, a 2.4-point margin with 38.8 total points; 49ers win 58% of the time.
Our number
SF by 2.4
Total 38.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SF by 2.4 · Total 38.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
49ers 58% · total 38.8Full preview →
Mon, Jan 4, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Texans21
Packers18
We project Texans 21-18, a 3.5-point margin with 38.7 total points; Texans win 61% of the time.
Our number
HOU by 3.5
Total 38.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — HOU by 3.5 · Total 38.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 61% · total 38.7Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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