Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 19, Chargers 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 37.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Chiefs puts up. Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Chiefs' strong defense (5th) outranks Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 18 and Chargers by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Chiefs are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Chiefs schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.