Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 21, Buccaneers 19 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Rams win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 40 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st). Rams' strong defense (9th) should limit Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 20 and Buccaneers by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Rams schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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