Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 22, Colts 21 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 43.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) against Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th). Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Browns puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 16 and Browns by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Colts would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on FOX.
More: Colts schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.