Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 21, Jets 16 at MetLife Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Vikings win about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5 points and 37.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game).
Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Vikings' projected points come from. Expect Jets to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 22 and Jets by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Jets get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Vikings schedule · Jets schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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