Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 22, Saints 22 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Falcons win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 43.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up. Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 16 and Falcons by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Saints would be favoured by 1.9. The game is on FOX.
More: Saints schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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