Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 24, Giants 22 at AT&T Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Cowboys win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 46 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game). The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game).
Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense) meets Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) against Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 15 and Cowboys by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Giants would be favoured by 1. The game is on FOX.
More: Giants schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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