Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 21, Titans 21 at Nissan Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 41.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game).
Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Titans' below-average defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up. Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) should limit Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 17 and Titans by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Steelers are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Steelers schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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