Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 24, Panthers 18 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 17. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 41.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Seahawks' projected points come from. Expect Panthers to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 23 and Panthers by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Seahawks schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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