Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cardinals 23, Raiders 22 at State Farm Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: Cardinals win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 44.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th). Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cardinals puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 16 and Cardinals by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Raiders would be favoured by 1.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Raiders schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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