Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 26, Lions 19 at Soldier Field in Week 17. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.6 points and 45 combined points.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 9 and Bears by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 5. The game is on FOX.
More: Lions schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.