Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 21, Eagles 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 17. That is a genuine toss-up: 49ers win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 38.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game). The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against Eagles' strong defense (8th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 15 and 49ers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Eagles would be favoured by 0.2. The game is on NBC.
More: Eagles schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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