Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 21, Packers 18 at Lambeau Field in Week 17. That is a lean: Texans win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 38.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) meets Packers' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texans puts up. Texans' strong defense (6th) should limit Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 20 and Packers by 13 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Texans are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
More: Texans schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 17 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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