Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 24, Falcons 20 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Panthers win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 43.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense) meets Panthers' below-average defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) against Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 13 and Panthers by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Panthers by about 1.5.
More: Falcons schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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