Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 23, Bears 18 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Vikings win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 40.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Expect Bears to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense). Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 13 and Vikings by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 1.7.
More: Bears schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.