Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 23, Browns 19 at Paycor Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Bengals win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game). The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game).
Bengals' below-average defense (24th) should limit Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Browns by 13 and Bengals by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bengals by about 1.4.
More: Browns schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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