Matchup analysis
Our model projects Packers 22, Lions 22 at Lambeau Field in Week 18. That is a genuine toss-up: Packers win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 43.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Packers' below-average defense (22nd); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 17 and Packers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Lions would be favoured by 2.6.
More: Lions schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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