Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 23, Colts 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 18. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.5 points and 43.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (30th). Jaguars' strong defense (4th) should limit Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 19 and Colts by 14 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
More: Jaguars schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 18 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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